Short-term volatility is still in play, but the market is clearly thinking long-term. All eyes are on the close of H1, when a lot of the uncertainty around crypto, such as macro signals and Fed policy, should start to settle.

Take the CLARITY Act, for example. If passed, it could give digital assets a serious legitimacy boost. Meanwhile, lingering questions around the Fed Chair might finally clear up, with markets already pricing in rate cuts.

In this mix, Ripple [XRP] is standing out. 

As an L1 attracting ETF inflows, it’s clear that investors are betting on the long-term, even after recent FUD. And with more regulation on the horizon, there’s a real chance that XRP could gain even more steam in H2.

But here’s the question: What exactly are investors betting on?

No doubt, Ripple has kicked off 2026 with some strategic moves. From setting up a Ripple Treasury to securing regulatory licenses in multiple countries, the company is solidifying RLUSD’s use case across Europe. 

Meanwhile, XRP is showing strong tokenization. Its RWA TVL is up 11% over the past 30 days, hitting a record $235 million. That’s another signal that its network fundamentals continue to attract institutional capital.

That said, the price hasn’t really reflected this growth. With a 9% pullback so far in 2026, XRP has slipped to $1.60 for the first time in nine months, effectively wiping out all the gains it made after the election cycle.

Naturally, the question arises: Is Ripple simply undervalued?

Altcoins are closely following Bitcoin [BTC] right now. 

The current correlation between BTC and the altcoin market sits at 87%, which basically means Bitcoin is dictating the market. When it dips, the market bleeds. When BTC pumps, the rally usually drags everything up.

Ripple is a prime example. Despite solid inflows, its price is largely following BTC’s moves. In fact, as the chart shows, XRP is at the top of the table with a 0.998 reading, making it the most BTC-dependent altcoin.

Now, this is where Ripple’s recent breakdown starts to make sense. 

Even with ETF flows, strategic partnerships, and licensing pointing to a long-term growth strategy, the current FUD around a government shutdown and other pressures is weighing on BTC, and, by extension, XRP.

Unsurprisingly, that’s putting a dent in Ripple’s long-term play. 

XRP just broke the $1.80 support level, rattling conviction. Meanwhile, as long as BTC volatility keeps outrunning fundamentals, the impact of recent inflows will stay muted, leaving the token exposed to deeper corrections.

• ETF inflows, strategic partnerships, regulatory progress, and record RWA TVL signal continued institutional interest, despite short-term FUD.
• Ripple’s 0.998 correlation with Bitcoin means dips in BTC pressure XRP, keeping recent inflows from fully impacting the price and exposing it to deeper corrections.