Key Takeaways

SOL shows strong buyer support. But coordinated whale sell-offs and Alameda’s large unstaking signal growing distribution risk, putting $170 support in focus.

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Solana [SOL] briefly slid to $173, shedding $15 million, before quickly rebounding — a show of buyer resilience.

However, historical trends warn that once SOL breaks resistance, it often faces swift capitulation. Could the current whale sell-offs be a precursor to such a shakeout?

Heavy whale selling pressure emerging

We’re ten days into August, and Solana’s relative weakness is pretty clear. 

SOL can’t push past the $200 level, inching up just 1.07% so far this month, while Ethereum [ETH] is running away with a strong 15.75% gain in the same timeframe. 

The gap gets even wider on the quarterly charts, with ETH delivering a massive 72% ROI compared to SOL’s much softer 12.8%. In fact, on-chain, whales are starting to offload, moving over 226k SOL to exchanges.

Notably, one big whale’s stash took a huge hit, dropping 71% in under two days, from $24 million down to $6.8 million.

That’s a massive $17.2 million worth of SOL sold, signaling serious selling pressure from a single player.

The critical question now is whether this distribution signals waning bullish momentum, making $200 a tough target for now, or just a brief pause before SOL pushes higher.

Alameda’s SOL unstake raises stakes for bulls

At first glance, Solana’s 2.35% weekly pullback looks small compared to other assets, likely driven by a broader market risk-on rotation rather than anything specific to Solana.

However, deeper forces were at play. One Alameda Research wallet unstaked $35 million in SOL, locked since late 2020 when worth $350K — a 100x gain.

Still, SOL’s Net Position remains positive, supporting price consolidation above $170. That’s a notable divergence from previous risk-off periods, where Net Position flipped negative and capitulation set in.

The $170 line in the sand

This sets SOL at a critical inflection point. Buy-side depth hasn’t collapsed yet, but selling pressure is clearly building. The sync between large whale sell-offs and unstaking activity points to coordinated distribution.

If $170 doesn’t hold as support, expect increased downside risk, making Solana a must-watch for short-term momentum shifts.

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