Ethereum drops below multi-year trendline—How low can ETH go?

Ethereum’s [ETH] price is at a critical juncture following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a national crypto reserve – one that initially excluded ETH before an ambiguous acknowledgment that followed.

With ETH struggling to hold key support levels, speculation of a broader downturn is increasing.

Technical analysts are debating whether Ethereum has broken below a multi-year ascending triangle. If confirmed, this structure could set the stage for a prolonged correction.

The uncertainty surrounding its role in U.S. policy adds another layer of volatility. With downside targets potentially lower than expected, is this the start of an extended bearish phase, or can ETH defy expectations and reclaim its footing?

Analyst Ali Martinez shows Ethereum’s price movement within a multi-year ascending triangle, a pattern generally associated with bullish breakouts.

However, instead of pushing higher, ETH has broken below the lower trendline — suggesting an atypical outcome.

This deviation from historical price action raises concerns about a potential bearish breakdown, with the target on the chart pointing significantly lower.

Typically, ascending triangles signal accumulation before a rally. Yet, ETH’s failure to hold support challenges this expectation. Comparing this to past Ethereum breakouts in 2020 and 2021, the current move contradicts previous bullish resolutions.

If confirmed, this breakdown could shift sentiment and open the door to deeper corrections. It will test whether ETH can reclaim lost support or enter a prolonged downtrend.

The Trump factor

Donald Trump’s initial announcement of a U.S. Crypto Reserve on the 2nd of March 2025, conspicuously excluded Ethereum, naming XRP, SOL, and ADA instead.

This omission raised immediate speculation – was ETH deliberately left out, or was this an oversight? Hours later, Trump followed up, stating that BTC and ETH would be the “heart of the Reserve,” appearing to correct the initial snub.

The timing is critical. ETH had already shown signs of weakness, but the exclusion may have intensified market fears. By the time Trump clarified his stance, Ethereum had broken below key support, aligning with a bearish breakdown.

Did Trump’s wavering stance accelerate ETH’s decline, or was the selloff inevitable? The market’s reaction suggests his words carried weight.

Market sentiment and key levels

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has shown notable volatility, with a sharp drop followed by a strong recovery above 61.3%. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment, with capital flowing back into Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins like Ethereum.

A sustained increase in BTC dominance often leads to weakness in the altcoin market, putting further pressure on ETH’s price action.

For Ethereum, the key levels to watch are its previously broken trendline and its ability to reclaim support. If ETH manages to regain this level, it could invalidate the bearish breakdown and signal a potential recovery.

However, if ETH remains below the broken ascending triangle support, it could confirm a deeper correction, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the broader altcoin market.

ETH at a crossroads: Breakdown confirmed or a March 7 rebound?
Ethereum’s technical structure suggests further downside risk, with price action firmly below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

At press time, the RSI was struggling near oversold territory, signaling weak momentum, while the MACD remains bearish.

Source: TradingView

BTC dominance rising above 61.3% further pressures altcoins, reinforcing ETH’s inability to reclaim key levels.

However, with the White House’s Crypto Summit on the horizon, ETH could see renewed investor attention. Especially if discussions from the event favor Ethereum’s role in the market.

Ali’s assessment of ETH’s weakness aligns with current indicators, but a decisive recovery above trendline resistance could challenge this bearish outlook.