Bitcoin trades near $77,300 today, after a rally that pushed it from roughly $64,500 a week ago. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says the year-end price will likely land close to where it sits now, not far above or below it.

Chen made the comments on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets podcast. She said calling whether Bitcoin finishes 2026 above or below $70,000 is hard right now. Interest rates remain the biggest swing factor she sees ahead.

"If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically," Chen said, referring to a possible rate hike. She described Bitcoin as more tied to traditional finance and macro conditions than in past cycles.

Her central estimate: Bitcoin finishes the year within $10,000 to $20,000 of current levels, in either direction. She called this her "more responsible" forecast, a deliberately narrow band compared to bolder market calls circulating this year.

Why This Forecast Matters Right Now

The timing gives Chen's comments weight. Bitcoin jumped more than 20% in the past week alone, moving from the mid-$60,000s to an intraday high near $79,500 before a flash crash pulled it back. It now sits around $77,300.

Some analysts read the move as confirmation of a bottom. Galaxy Digital traders have pointed to dollar weakness and Treasury buybacks as fuel for a hard-asset rally, with a base case near $80,000 and room to run higher. Standard Chartered has gone further, suggesting its existing $100,000 year-end call could prove too conservative.

Other signals urge caution. Bitcoin's four-hour Relative Strength Index recently hit a seven-year high, a reading traders often associate with overheated, unsustainable rallies. Chen's forecast sits between these camps: neither dismissing the rally nor extrapolating it into a new all-time high.

The Case Against A US Bitcoin Buying Spree

Chen's second point concerns Washington. She said she does not expect the US government to actively buy Bitcoin for its reserves before President Trump's term ends, calling the odds low over the next two years.

This connects to a policy already in place. In March 2025, the Trump administration created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by executive action. The reserve used Bitcoin the government already held through criminal and civil forfeiture, not new purchases with taxpayer funds.

Officials were directed to study budget-neutral ways of acquiring more BTC. Over a year later, no direct purchase program has followed. The US still holds an estimated 328,372 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, almost entirely from law enforcement seizures rather than open-market buying.

Chen argues that turning this reserve into an active buyer is a far bigger step than creating it. It would require congressional debate and cross-party negotiation, even with a crypto-friendly White House. "From a policy perspective, it's probably unlikely," she said. "I just don't see it coming right now."

What This Means For Bitcoin Holders

Her framing separates two different bullish stories that often get merged. One is the market story: institutional demand, spot ETF flows, and macro conditions pushing price. The other is the sovereign-buyer story: governments stockpiling Bitcoin the way they hold gold.

Chen's comments support the first while pouring cold water on the second, at least in the near term. Price gains this year have come from private capital and corporate treasuries, not government purchasing power.

This matters for anyone weighing whether a US sovereign bid is a catalyst to expect soon. Reserve holdings through forfeiture already give the government exposure without buying, which reduces the political urgency to allocate new spending.

Chen's $10,000 to $20,000 range around current prices is wide enough to cover both a pullback toward $60,000 and a run past $90,000. It reflects the same rate uncertainty driving broader market forecasts through year-end, without leaning on assumptions about a policy shift that has not materialized.