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According to Cointelegraph, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, posted an analysis on March 1, 2026, arguing that Bitcoin is currently 24% to 66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap and the global money supply. Mow stated that gold has become "overextended" after climbing above $5,247 per ounce, while Bitcoin trades near $66,400.

Central to Mow's case is the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This metric measures how far BTC's price deviates from its historical average against gold. When the Z-score drops below -2, Bitcoin has historically staged major price recoveries, according to Mow. At the time of writing, the Z-score stood at approximately -1.24, approaching but not yet reaching that threshold.

Mow pointed to two historical precedents. In November 2022, the Z-score fell below -3 amid the FTX collapse, and Bitcoin rallied over 150% in the following 12 months. During the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the metric dropped below -2 as BTC hit roughly $3,717, then surged over 300% in the next year.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has been under sustained pressure throughout 2025. As Cointelegraph reported in December 2025, the ratio dropped from roughly 40 ounces of gold per BTC at the end of 2024 to around 20 ounces per BTC by late 2025 — a 50% decline. Central banks bought 254 tonnes of gold through October 2025, and global gold ETF holdings rose by 397 tonnes in the first half of the year, reinforcing gold's dominance.

Spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management, meanwhile, peaked at $152 billion in July 2025 before declining to approximately $112 billion, reflecting reduced inflows and long-term holder profit-taking. These demand dynamics explain why the ratio compressed sharply, making Mow's current reading of the Z-score more relevant to investors reassessing positioning between the two assets.

As we previously analyzed in our overview of the case for Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralized nature have long underpinned comparisons with gold, particularly in the context of sovereign and institutional capital allocation. The current Z-score reading could revive those discussions if BTC begins closing the performance gap.

Not all analysts share Mow's outlook. Other market participants forecast further downside, with some projecting Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 before finding a floor — a trajectory they compare to the 2022 bear market cycle.

FXEmpire noted that gold surged over 70% in 2025 while Bitcoin fell roughly 7%, a divergence that raises questions about Bitcoin's status as a "digital gold" safe-haven. If the gap persists into 2026, the argument that Bitcoin functions as a hedge against macro uncertainty may lose support among short-term capital allocators.

Still, some technical analysts argue that the same ratio could form a base. The FXEmpire analysis also observed that the BTC-to-gold ratio is consolidating in a support zone between 16 and 20, and a hold above the 16 level could point toward a Bitcoin rebound. Long-term holders who weathered 2022 remain attentive to Z-score readings as a potential early indicator, given the pattern of recoveries that have followed similar lows in the past.