Key Takeaways What recent actions has the whale taken?

He moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, increased his short on BTC to $234 million via Hyperliquid, and holds a leveraged short opened at $111,000 with 10x exposure.

Why are traders watching his activity?

His trades suggest a potential market correction, with some expecting Bitcoin could retest $100,000 or lower.

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Bitcoin [BTC] has rebounded to $108,300, up 0.49% in the past 24 hours, showing a solid recovery since the 10th of October crash.

However, not all market participants are convinced that the rally has legs.

Bitcoin OG intensifies bearish bet

A well-known Bitcoin OG, who made $200 million shorting BTC during the Trump-China tariff crash, has doubled down on his bearish stance.

Known in crypto circles as the “Trump insider,” this whale has increased his short position to 2,100 BTC, valued at roughly $227 million. This happens as traders debate whether the recent recovery has already peaked.

Additionally, on the 21st of October, the investor also placed a new short position of $234 million on BTC via the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid [HYPE], with a liquidation price set at $123,000, as per reports from Arkham. 

This means if Bitcoin’s price rises above that level, the position could face a margin call and be forcibly closed.

Building the short stack

The transaction followed a prior deposit of 200 BTC (approx. $22 million) used to expand the existing short position just a day earlier.

Earlier this week, he further deployed $30 million in Tether [USDC] to Hyperliquid to open a $76 million short, adding to his exposure as Bitcoin briefly attempted a recovery from last week’s sharp decline.

At one point, his combined BTC short exposure reached roughly 3,440 BTC (about $392 million), showing the scale of his influence in Derivatives markets.

The timing of these trades has sparked debate among crypto traders, with many speculating that the whale anticipates another correction, potentially expecting Bitcoin to retest $100,000 or lower.

Market weighs the signal

Now, amid a neutral crypto sentiment with fear and greed at 50 and Bitcoin dominance hovering around 60%, the market is showing a cautious tilt toward BTC over altcoins.

Recent activity in derivatives and increased institutional involvement, especially with products like BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, suggest a maturing ecosystem. This development may lead to a reduction in extreme volatility.

However, Bitcoin’s established post-halving patterns and the behavior of long-term holders indicate that price fluctuations are currently mild.

Despite this, there remains potential for significant market movements, which keeps traders and investors attentive.

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