• Long-Term Holder Supply surged to 14.18M BTC, outpacing Short-Term Holders by a wide margin.
• Analyst Axel Adler projects a $160K target using a 1.6x multiplier on current levels.

Throughout the current cycle, Bitcoin’s [BTC] long-term holders (LTHs) have shown strong conviction, continuing to increase their holdings while reducing spending even during corrections and macroeconomic uncertainties. 

Now, with prices stable around $107K, LTHs have once again surpassed Short-Term Holders (STHs) in dominance, reigniting bullish talk in the crypto circles.

This power dynamics observed in the market has left analysts talking, with Axel Adler eyeing a rally to $160k.  

Analyst: “This phase could last 4–8 weeks”

During each of the three major rallies, LTHs have built their positions, outpacing short-term holders. Historically, LTH continued accumulation has resulted in a major price rally.

Looking at previous cycles, the first time this happened was when BTC was trading around $28K. 

Then, when Bitcoin consolidated at $60K, a similar supply shift gave bulls the strength to break through $100K. Now, with that same pattern repeating above the $100K mark, all eyes are back on the ratio.

On-chain says LTHs aren’t bluffing

On-chain metrics back Adler’s thesis.

Long-Term Holder Supply has now climbed to 14.18 million BTC, while Short-Term Holder Supply has slipped to just 3.9 million BTC.

This shows that while LTHs’ supply is surging significantly, STHs’ holdings are declining even though prices are stable. As such, LTH’s Net Position Change has bounced back from a recent drop from 181k to 209kBTC. 

This shift in LTH supply suggests that with the market recovering from recent pullback, they are buying even more. 

Even more telling is the Net Position Change for LTHs, which recently jumped from 181K to 209K BTC—an increase of 28K BTC in just two days.

$110K now or $160K later?

That spike didn’t just signal strength; it helped absorb selling pressure.

As STHs cashed out during the recent $98K drop, LTHs stepped in with confidence, buying the dip and pushing the price back toward $107K.

In the short term, though, if this group continues to stack, they will boost BTC to reclaim $110k and eye $112k psychological level. 

In the long run, as predicted by Adler, based on a more conservative multiplier of ×1.6, BTC could rally to $160k. Although not improbable, this level is far-fetched as of now. 

read more