• Whale inflows spiked as investors shifted focus from scarcity
• On-chain metrics supported bullish sentiment with strong holder profitability and key price support zones

Over 22,000 BTC have flowed into Binance within a span of less than two weeks. Its latest uptick increased the exchange’s Bitcoin [BTC] reserves from 568,768 BTC on 28 March to 590,874 BTC by 9 April.

Such a sharp rise in reserves reflects growing investor activity, possibly triggered by fears surrounding macroeconomic uncertainty and the looming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. 

While some may interpret these inflows as a sign of potential sell pressure, others believe that it could be strategic accumulation in preparation for market volatility.

Stock-to-flow ratio drops sharply – Has scarcity lost its influence?

With exchange reserves rising, another metric took a noticeable hit.

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio plunged by 16.66% in the last 24 hours. Here, it’s worth noting that this metric tracks Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing supply to mined coins.

Its decline brought the press time value down to approximately 1.0586 million – Indicative of a reduced market emphasis on Bitcoin’s scarcity model. 

While the S2F often aligns with long-term bullish trends, recent behavior underlined the focus shifting to inflation and interest rate factors.

Bitcoin price compresses under key resistance

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $81,715.99, following gains of 5.57% over the past 24 hours.

Despite this recovery, however, the price remains trapped within a descending wedge pattern. In fact, it seemed to be testing a major resistance zone near $84,000. While the support level around $76,000 has been holding, the narrowing pattern suggested that a breakout may be imminent. 

If the bulls manage to push through the upper boundary, the $102,000 target could come into play. However, failure to maintain support could trigger a fall towards $60,000. Hence, this a make-or-break zone for BTC.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio climbs – Are investors still confident in their positions?

Adding more context to the market mood, the MVRV ratio—which gauges whether BTC is over- or undervalued—was at 1.86, reflecting a 4.84% hike in the last 24 hours.

A ratio above 1 implies that holders are likely to remain confident and hold, rather than sell at a loss.

However, as the ratio climbs, so does the temptation to lock in gains. This highlights the importance of tracking sentiment shifts in real time.

Most wallets still “In the Money,” but for how long?

According to the latest in/out of the money data, 75.90% of addresses are holding BTC at a profit, while just 23.01% are out of the money. This is a sign that a majority of market participants remain well-positioned. This can serve as a psychological cushion during pullbacks. 

Additionally, the concentration of holders just below the press time price seemed to create a strong support zone, potentially limiting the downside.

However, with a large cluster of addresses also nearing breakeven, any significant drop could trigger panic among weak hands.

Putting all the pieces together, the data seems to favor strategic positioning over fear-driven exits.

A majority of holders remain in profit, the MVRV ratio has been supporting a bullish outlook, and the price is still respecting key support levels. 

In short, whales aren’t bailing, they’re betting. Their accumulation behavior hinted that smart money has been quietly setting up for the next move, not fleeing from it.

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