XRP faces further downside before its next major price move, according to Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist.

In a recent post on X, Aljarrah predicted a significant long-term rise for XRP while warning that another price drop lies ahead.

He linked this outlook to the global debt cycle, arguing that a major increase in liquidity will drive XRP to much higher valuations over time.

The weekly XRP/USD chart tracks the coin’s price history from 2017 through October 2026. It highlights three previous market peaks and a rising trendline extending toward 2028.

XRP is currently trading around $1.28, down from its 2025 peak of approximately $3.50. Its all-time high stands at roughly $3.84, according to CoinMarketCap.

The chart shows XRP trading between two moving averages. The blue line sits around $1.52, while the yellow line is near $1.27. XRP remains below the blue line but above the yellow line.

This positioning leaves XRP vulnerable to further declines if it fails to hold its current trading range. The rising trendline identifies a potential support zone between $1.00 and $1.30.

Conversely, a move above the blue moving average would signal improving price momentum and an early indication of a recovery.

Aljarrah believes the next phase of the debt cycle will trigger a substantial increase in global liquidity. This influx of capital will boost demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies such as XRP.

The timing and scale of this liquidity expansion remain uncertain, and the chart alone does not establish when market conditions will shift.

Last week, Aljarrah also highlighted how XRP spent two years trading sideways before its explosive rally in 2017–2018.

He argues that this historical pattern demonstrates how prolonged periods of price stagnation often precede major rallies. However, he maintains that XRP faces further downside before its next significant upward move.

XRP’s historical rallies reinforce Aljarrah’s long-term outlook, but the cryptocurrency remains well below its previous peak. Reclaiming the previous peak of $3.66 requires a 186% surge.

Meanwhile, a decline toward the rising trendline would expose XRP to additional losses. On the other hand, a sustained move above the $1.52 moving average would strengthen the case for a recovery.

For now, XRP remains in a corrective phase rather than demonstrating a confirmed new bull run. Aljarrah views the current weakness as part of the market cycle, not a barrier to substantial long-term gains.