Bitcoin (BTC) surged back above $79,000 during Monday’s Wall Street open, recovering weekend losses as markets weighed conflicting signals over the US-Iran war. Crypto saw a sharp 3% daily gain after President Trump suggested a peace deal with Iran was imminent, posting on Truth Social that the nation “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly.”

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US equities initially rose at the open but turned negative as threats to key oil-transit routes persisted beyond Iran. WTI crude remained above $100 per barrel, while Brent traded at $105, even as Trump predicted oil “will drop like a rock” after the conflict ends.

Consequently, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, up from 59.4% last week. Trading firm QCP Capital warned that prolonged energy disruption could lift inflation expectations and constrain the Fed’s ability to pause tightening.

“This dynamic creates policy tension: continued energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive, while economic data weakness from higher energy costs could argue for patience,” QCP wrote. Meanwhile, the firm argued that risk assets have already priced in the hike, shifting focus to how officials frame their move and what it signals about the path ahead.

BTC/USD reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430 on Monday after initially closing below it, marking a critical support retest for the bull market.

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