A long-term fractal analysis comparing the 2017–2018 and 2024–2026 cycles shows that XRP’s steep descent from its $3.65 all-time high mirrors a previous pattern that led to a strong price bottom and a swift rebound.

XRP’s weekly structure suggests a familiar setup: the drop to $1.10 mirrors a lower trendline retest of the symmetrical triangle in 2017, when the asset bottomed near $0.12 before launching higher.

Commenting on the structure, crypto analyst Javon stated that the current cycle could play out in a similar fashion to previous runs. “There is a potential we see this overall run unfold in an identical manner,” he noted, adding that the present decline may simply be a temporary correction before XRP potentially surges well beyond the $20 level.

In 2017, XRP traded within a symmetrical triangle as market leverage cooled. The consolidation eventually ended with a breakout above the pattern’s upper trendline, triggering a massive 1,577% rally.

If a similar structure plays out, bulls would need to drive XRP above the $1.78–$2.30 resistance zone to confirm a decisive breakout and signal the start of the next major rally.

This zone also marks a key technical confluence, where the triangle’s upper boundary near $2 aligns with both the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the area as a critical resistance level.

On-chain metrics further highlight this barrier. XRP’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates substantial supply clusters positioned above the current spot price, with roughly 3.6% of the circulating supply concentrated around $2 and another 3.15% near $1.80. Together, these levels form a dense overhead resistance band that bulls must clear to sustain further upside.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that XRP’s multi-exchange daily deposit/withdrawal transaction delta, which tracks the net number of XRP transfers across 15 major crypto exchanges, has dropped to historic lows.

In a QuickTake analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha explained that a decline in the metric typically indicates investors are moving XRP off exchanges into external wallets.

“This behavior often reflects accumulation and long-term confidence,” Taha observed.

XRP-linked spot exchange-traded funds have accumulated roughly $1.4 billion in assets since their launch, indicating that long-term capital continues to flow into the market even as short-term trading activity begins to cool.

Outflows from the XRP funds have begun to ease, particularly after Goldman Sachs emerged as the largest holder, a development seen as a sign of growing institutional confidence in the token’s long-term outlook.

Meanwhile, Ripple is further reinforcing confidence through a $750 million share buyback program, valuing the company at a whopping $50 billion.