CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson has released a fresh on-chain analysis of TRON (TRX), focusing on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to assess investor sentiment and potential market direction.

The data paints a picture of tension and neutrality, with the metric teetering on a critical level that could dictate TRX’s next major move.

Currently, TRON’s SOPR is hovering precisely around the 1.0 mark, a level regarded as the psychological breakeven point for investors. The SOPR metric reflects whether coins are being sold at a profit (> 1.0) or a loss (< 1.0). A value of 1.0 indicates that, on average, holders are selling at their cost basis — neither gaining nor losing. 

Wedson emphasizes that this state of extreme neutrality signals a market waiting for direction. The tug-of-war between buyers and sellers is reaching a tipping point, with the potential for a significant breakout in either direction.

Historically, sustained movements above 1.0 in SOPR have preceded bullish rallies, as profit-taking returns and confidence strengthens. Conversely, drops below 1.0 often trigger panic selling and heightened loss realization.

Wedson also notes that the largest profit-taking phase for TRX occurred between October 2024 and March 2025, with SOPR well above the breakeven mark during that period.

• Bullish Outlook: A clean breakout and hold above 1.0 would suggest that selling pressure has been absorbed. This could revive investor confidence and trigger renewed upside momentum in TRX’s price.
• Bearish Risk: A decisive rejection below 1.0 could signal the onset of fear-driven selling, potentially intensifying downward pressure and extending losses.

As the TRON market stalls at a crucial psychological juncture, SOPR remains the metric to watch. A move in either direction could define the tone for the weeks ahead.