Coingape - 8/8/2019 6:46:50 PM - GMT (+0 )
Bitcoin has recovered from its 2018 lows with a 275% increase. However, it is down nearly 40% from its All-Time High in 2017. Whether or not Bitcoin will replicate its 2017 run is troubling the minds of investors and traders everywhere.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally during 2017 was classified as a bubble, but the retail volume that it projected during the time was massive. Despite the hype, the volume drove Bitcoin [BTC] to new highs around $20,000.What Could Drive Bitcoin’s Bull Run this Time?
Currently, Bitcoin [BTC] seems on a path to replicate the rally, but not of greed but a necessity. According to many chief strategists and economic experts like Ray Dalio and Nouriel Roubini, there is an imminent global financial crisis upon us. Former US Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers also reiterated it an interview on Monday. He said,
“You can see that in all the assets that people run to when they are scared – Long term US bonds, gold, even Bitcoin.” He also said, “That’s a sign that people are very anxious. They are anxious because there is a growing risk that this trade conflict between the United States and China will broaden and get out of control.”
The US-China Trade War, Currency War, Fed Rate-Cut, Brexit, and so on have created an environment of uncertainty all-around. Ari Paul, the Co-Founder of BlockTower Capital, tweeted,
This is likely to become the single most repeated and important question for crypto over the next year. We’re entering a weird macro environment. No perfect historical analogy. A little like 1931 maybe. https://t.co/4RhotUBtrc
— Ari Paul ⛓️ (@AriDavidPaul) August 7, 2019
Apart from the rising tension in the global economic markets. The cryptocurrency markets are also under a lot of selling pressure as seen with altcoins. Moreover, Peter Brandt also suggested that the crypto-market could collapse because of the altcoins.
Bitcoin market capitalization Vs altcoin market capitalization But, What’s Different From December 2017?
Nevertheless, if the altcoins exodus further extends to Bitcoin, it could add more value to its market capitalization.
According to a recent report from Coinshares, widespread media attention, rising google trends, and an altcoin rally were one of the major highlights of the rise in 2017. Hence, it can be said that the previous rally could have been influenced by greed.
Google Trends for ‘Bitcoin’ in the Past 5 Years (Google Trends)
However, this time, the ‘retail investors’ seem to be missing. The google trends for ‘Bitcoin’ is way lower this time.
Moreover, the altcoin rally has also been absent from the current rally. Some analysts like Max Keizer predict that Bitcoin’s dominance could increase to about 80% before the alts make any significant move. We are already witnessing a massive sell-off of altcoins since the past couple of weeks.Cryptocurrency Total Market Capitalization Excluding Bitcoin (Source)
The total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, has dipped below $100 billion during the last couple of weeks. Hence, a continued trend could be disastrous for altcoin ‘hodlers’ but highly beneficial to Bitcoin’s price.
Last but not least, market characteristics are significantly different from the previous time, retail investors can start flocking-in with further increase in price.
Hence, coupled with backing from institutional investors with strong economic reason, a surge in retail volume could drive Bitcoin to new All-Time Highs.
What will be the New All-Time High level in Bitcoin price? Please share your views with us.
Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Journalist at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com