The bullish expectation for Q4 2025 has turned out to be a bloodbath, and memecoins are among the biggest casualties.

In particular, tokens like Official Trump  [TRUMP] and Melania [MELANIA] have extended their 2025 losses. 

In the past 30 days, MELANIA was down 39% while TRUMP declined by 32%. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, they had dropped by 96% (to $0.11) and 78% (to $5.70), respectively.

And they could drop lower if the market weakens into early 2026. 

Memecoin lull impact on MELANIA, TRUMP

Following the Q4 market contraction and a subsequent Bitcoin pullback of over 30%, the memecoin frenzy fizzled out. 

In fact, on a YTD basis across all segments, memecoins have been one of the major underperformers this year.

Market attention shifted to privacy coins, triggering an explosive rally across Zcash [ZEC] and other related assets. 

In fact, the privacy sector is the only segment to have made a profit (192%) this year, leaving memecoins mania dry. 

Overall, the memecoin sector experienced an average 58% loss in 2025. This meant that MELANIA and TRUMP losses were above average, underscoring that the holders were severely burnt in the market rout. 

Interest in TRUMP drops by 78%

The lost momentum in TRUMP and MELANIA was further supported by speculative interest across the Futures market. 

According to Velo data, the total Open Interest (OI) shrank from over $550 million in early 2025 to $120 million in December.

That was a 78% drop in market interest, suggesting that attention had shifted elsewhere or traders had exited the market. 

For MELANIA, the speculative interest collapsed by 90%. If the broader market contracts further from its current levels, memecoins could bleed out more, and TRUMP and MELANIA could go lower. 

Surprisingly, TRUMP still had a strong holder count that suggested long-term conviction. According to Solscan, despite the headwinds over the past three months, the TRUMP token had over 600K holders.   

Overall, the memecoin lull in 2025 dented TRUMP and MELANIA, with the latter likely to dump harder if the market rout extends.

Despite a drop in speculative interest, TRUMP still had over half a million holders, suggesting an expectation of potential recovery. 

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Final Thoughts 

• Speculative interest in MELANIA and TRUMP collapsed by 90% and 78%, respectively. 
• But there was a surprising hold behaviour for the TRUMP token despite excessive losses. 

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